[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Before decaying to plage, Region 2849 (S27, L=068) produced a C4 flare at 24/0033 UTC. Associated with the event was a type II radio sweep (554 km/s) and a CME signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery after 24/0036 UTC. Analysis of the event is ongoing.

Region 2846 (N25E13, Cro/beta) developed some minor spots around the leader spot. Region 2847 (S27E30, Hrx/alpha) was in decay. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 24-26 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 24-26 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged below 400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-6 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Possible influence from the 20 Jul CME may cause enhancements in the solar wind on 24 Jul, but weaken throughout the day as CME effects wane. 25 Jul is expected to see a return to nominal conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are likely on 24 Jul due to CME influences. 25-26 Jul is expected to see a return to mostly quiet levels.

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