[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2842 (N26W08, Cso/beta) produced the strongest even of the period, a B7/Sf flare at 17/0317 UTC. The region developed E-W magnetic inversion line. The other two numbered regions with spots remained relatively simple and quiet. A new region of emerging flux near S15E01 was noted and will be assigned an active region number if it persists.

Other activity included a Type II radio sweep (439 km/s) beginning at 17/0510 UTC. The event appears to be associated with a CME around the E limb. An EIT wave observed in several wavelengths propagating westward from the Suns far side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 18-20 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 18-20 Jul, with a chance for high levels on 18 Jul due to recent CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged near 425 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Phi angle transitioned from negative to predominantly positive after 16/2310 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through 20 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected through 20 Jul.

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