[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2843 (S17W65, Cro/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0837 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region developed small, intermediate and trailer spots over the past day. Region 2842 (N25E06, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. A new region of flux appears to be rotating around the SE limb.

A DSF was observed in the NE quadrant at the end of 15 Jul. Subsequent coronagraph imagery from L1 was dominated by a halo CME event that took place on the far side of the Sun just prior to the DSF. Available coronagraph imagery from STEREO-A COR 2 contains a gap during the event. Despite the suboptimal imagery, there does not appear to be any clear indication of a CME component along the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 17-19 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly normal, with a few brief occasions of moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 17-19 Jul, with a chance for high levels on 17-18 Jul due to any enhanced CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly disturbed and enhanced regime, likely related to proximity to and weak connections with a negative polarity CH HSS extension of the southern polar CH. Total magnetic field strength drop from its peak of 9 nT at 15/1200 UTC to below 5 nT after 15/1910 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between 420-480 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly wane as influence from the CH HSS weakens over 16 Jul. A return to near background levels is expected over 17 Jul and into 18 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Jul due to continuing, but weakening CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected 17-18 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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