[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 May 24 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 May 24 0337 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 May 2021

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels with the majority of the flare activity caused by Region 2824 (N21, L=195, class/area Csi/190 on 22 May). Very low levels were observed on 17 and 19-20 May with Low levels occurring on 18 and 21 May. Activity increased to moderate levels on 22-23 May due to a series of M1 flares from Region 2824 at 22/1711, 22/2136, and 23/1108 UTC. In addition to the M-class flares were several noteworthy C-class flares, including an impulsive C6/1n at 22/0256 UTC with an associated Type II (1530 km/s) Radio sweep, an impulsive C6/1n with an associated Type II (653 km/s), and a long duration C1 at 22/0844 UTC. Multiple CME signatures were observed from the region associated with these flares (and others). Each were modelled and put into a consolidated WSA-ENLIL run showing arrival times beginning late on 25 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 1,040 pfu which was briefly reached at 22/1635 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. The period began with nominal solar wind values in the 325-420 km/s range through early on 20 May. An isolated active period was observed early on 18 May due to possible weak CME influence from 13 May. The geomagnetic field was quiet on 17 May, quiet to active on 18 May, and quiet to unsettled on 19 May. Beginning at 20/1845 UTC, total field increased to 19 nT while solar wind speed subsequently increased to near 575 km/s due to the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed slowly decreased back to nominal levels by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20 May, quiet to unsettled on 21 May, and quiet levels thereafter.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 May - 19 June 2021

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for further M-class flares on 24-30 May as Region 2824 rotates across the visible disk. Very low levels are expected on 31 May - 11 Jun. Low levels are expected to return on 12-19 Jun as Region 2824 rotates back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-29 May due to CME enhancements.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25-27 May with G2 (Moderate) storming on 26 May due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 22-23 May. G1 (Minor) storming is also likely on 16 Jun as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

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