[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2824 (N18E07, Cso/beta-gamma) produced three M1 flare events this period; an M1/1n at 22/1711 UTC, an M1/1n at 22/2136 UTC, and an M1 at 23/1108 UTC. In addition to the M-class flare activity, Region 2824 produced several C-class flares. Region 2824 developed multiple periphery spots and grew more magnetically complex this period. New Region 2825 (N16E60, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period but was otherwise unremarkable.

A CME associated with the 22/2136 UTC M1/1n flare was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the NW at around 22/2212 UTC. Analysis of this event is underway.

Forecast: Over the next three days (23-25), C-class flare activity is expected and there is a chance for additional M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts) flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 23-25 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from initial values around 450-475 km/s to end-of-period values around 425 km/s. Total field strength was steady at around 2-4 nT and the Bz component remained near 0 nT throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels until 25 May, when the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to drive a slight increase in the near-Earth solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 23-24 May. Positive polarity CH HSS influence is anticipated on 25 May with quiet to unsettled conditions likely.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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