[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2818 (S17W34, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. Region 2820 (S17W40, Dro/beta) underwent decay in its intermediate spots and also in the penumbra of its leader and trailer spots. Region 2821s (S23W50, Cso/beta) trailing spots penumbra completely decayed, while its leading and intermediate spots were mostly unchanged since last period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is anticipated to be at low levels with a chance for C-class flares 28-30 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 30 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment recovered to mostly background levels as CME influence ceased near the end of the 27th. Total field averaged 2-4 nT, Bz was +/- 2 nT, and wind speeds fell from ~490 km/s to under 400 km/s by periods end. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation with a couple of brief excursions into the positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels through 29 Apr. Wind speeds, while slightly elevated, are expected to continue a gradually decrease. It remains possible some material from the filament eruption that occurred on 26 Apr may pass close enough to Earth to raise parameters on 30 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet levels are expected through 29 Apr and most of 30 Apr with the possibility of some material from the filament eruption on 26 Apr will come close enough to Earth on 30 Apr to create unsettled conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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