[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached R1 (Moderate) levels. Region 2816 (S25E15, Dai/beta) showed some evidence of growth throughout the day before producing an M1/Sn flare at 19/2342 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II, shock velocity of 750 km/s and Type IV spectral radio signatures. LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME signature off the E limb, first visible at 20/0036 UTC. Initial analysis and subsequent modeling indicated no Earth-directed component. However, further analysis will be conducted as more imagery becomes available.

Region 2817 (N18W55, Dai/beta) exhibited rapid growth over the past 12 hours and has produced numerous B-level events in including a C2 flare in progress at this writing. New Region 2818 (S17E73, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered this period. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class and a slight chance for R1 (Minor) flare activity through 22 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,148 pfu observed at 19/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 22 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength peaked at 7 nT and Bz, while highly variable, was bound between +/- 6 nT. The solar wind was steady between 600 and 650 km/s, but briefly peaked closer to 675 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease over the next day (20 Apr) as CH HSS influence abates.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active this period with continued negative polarity CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active the first half of 20 Apr due to continued, but waning, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Thereafter, a return to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated.

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