[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2816 (S25E34, Cao/beta) exhibited slight growth during the period. New Region 2817 (N19W36, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive.

A slow-moving CME was observed off the west limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at around 18/0830 UTC. This CME appears to be associated with prominence activity on the NW limb and is not expected to be Earth-directed.

Dimming was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 near 19/0755 UTC from an unnumbered region beyond the east limb. Though not expected to be Earth-directed, further analysis will occur when LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, over 19-21 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 14,078 pfu observed at 18/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19-21 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength values varied between 2-8 nT and Bz varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 575 km/s until 19/0430 UTC, when an increase to 650 km/s was observed. Phi angle has been predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease over 19-20 Apr due to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Background conditions are expected to prevail on 21 Apr with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 19 Apr, and quiet to unsettled on 20 Apr due to continued, but waning, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 21 Apr.

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