[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Intermittent spots were observed in the NE quadrant, but did not meet criteria for numbering. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 07-09 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels, with a chance for high levels on 07-09 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely arrival of a co-rotating interaction region beginning after 07/0600 UTC preceding a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field increased from around 6 nT to 15 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 300 km/s to near 400 km/s. phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: A small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS is expected to increase solar wind speed around midday on 07 Apr to the 450-500 km/s range (based on observations from STEREO-A on 02-03 Apr). Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue into 08 Apr and wane on 09 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed during the 07/0900-1200 UTC period likely due to CIR activity preceding a HSS.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected on 07 Apr followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 08 Apr as CH HSS activity persists. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 09 Apr.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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