[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 31 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with only a few B-class enhancements observed. Region 2794 (S16W57, Hsx/alpha) remained little changed. Region 2795 (S18W30, Cro/beta) underwent further decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 31 Dec-02 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 31 Dec-02 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced but weakened state as CH HSS influences waned. Total IMF strength decreased and averaged primarily between 2 to 5 nT. The Bz component varied and reached a maximum southward deviation of -4 nT. Solar wind speed reduced from ~530 km/s to near 400 km/s. The phi angle had a few brief deflections into a positive sector, but was otherwise negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending towards an ambient, background state during the remainder of 31 Dec as CH HSS influences wane. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 01-02 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be primarily at quiet levels, the remainder of 31 Dec as CH HSS effects wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Jan.

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