[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class enhancements observed, the highest was a B6 at 29/2104 UTC. Region 2794 (S15W45, Hsx/alpha) remained little changed. Region 2795 (S18W17, Cao/beta) continued to undergo slow decay and was the source of most B-class X-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 30 Dec-01 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 30 Dec-01 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a mildly enhanced state, possibly due to weak CH HSS influences of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength ranged from about 5 to 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable and briefly reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Solar wind speed averaged mainly between 450-525 km/s and the phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced on 30 Dec due to minor influences of the weak CH HSS. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 31 Dec-01 Jan as the small CH HSS rotates towards the west limb and any minor influences wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled activity on 30 Dec as CH HSS influences continue, but wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 31 Dec-01 Jan.

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