[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A few B-level enhancements were observed from Region 2795 (S17E49, Dao/beta) and from an area of plage to the southeast of Region 2795, which developed 2-3 immature spots since last period but remains unnumbered. Some trailer penumbral growth was observed in Region 2795. Region 2794 (S16E21, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and unchanged. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 25-27 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum flux of 1,539 pfu observed at 24/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed gradually decreased throughout the period from initial values just below 600 km/s to around 500 km/s by the end of the period. Total field was steady near 5 nT throughout the period and the Bz component remained within +/- 5 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced through 25-26 Dec under the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain in the 400-500 km/s range. By 27 Dec, solar wind parameters are expected to return to a more nominal environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 25-26 Dec due to diminishing CH HSS effects. A return to quiet levels is expected on 27 Dec.

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