[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Dec 07 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Dec 07 0118 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November - 06 December 2020

Solar activity reached low levels this week due to C-class flare activity. A total of ten C-class flares were observed this period. Region 2786 (S17, L=343, class/area=Cko/1000 on 25 Nov) produced three C1 flares, Region 2787 (N30, L=303, class/area=Axx/10 on 30 Nov) produced one C1 flare, and Region 2790 (S22, L=252, class/area=Hsx/110 on 03 Dec) produced six C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C3/Sf from Region 2790 at 01/0427 UTC.

Multiple CMEs associated with flare activity and filament eruptions, predominately off the east limb, were observed this week, however, none were Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced on 30 Nov following a CME off the NE limb on 26 Nov, and remained enhanced through 05 Dec. The greater than 10 Mev proton flux reached a peak of 6.5 pfu at 01/0655 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 02-03 Dec, with normal to moderate flux levels observed throughout the remainder of the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 30 Nov, and quiet on 01-06 Dec, under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 December - 02 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-26 and 29-30 Dec. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Dec, with active levels likely on 18 and 24 Dec, due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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