[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 11-13 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 8,131 pfu, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 11-13 Jul due to enhanced wind speeds from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS influences. Solar wind velocities averaged primarily from 550-650 km/s. The total field strength fluctuated mainly between 3 and 7 nT; while the Bz component routinely varied orientations, with a few prolonged periods of southward direction. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 11 Jul due to continuing influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 12 Jul. A return to mostly ambient conditions is forecast for 13 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but experienced a few periods of unsettled conditions due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Conditions are expected to continue ranging from quiet to active on 11 Jul, due to CH HSS influences. Conditions are forecast to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Jul, and mostly quiet on 13 Jul as CH HSS effects wane.

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