[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 10-12 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 10 Jul, increasing to moderate to high levels on 11-12 Jul due to enhanced wind speeds from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 10-12 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of CIR influences and CH HSS intensity escalation. Solar wind velocities increased during the period from ~450 km/s to over 675 km/s, and total field strength fluctuated primarily between 5 and 13 nT. The Bz component underwent a pronounced and prolonged period of southward direction between 09/1800-1900 UTC during which a maximum negative component of -12 nT was reached; additionally, a lengthy period of predominantly southward direction occurred after 10/0300 UTC. The phi angle was primarily positive until near 10/0400 UTC, when it underwent some brief negative oscillations.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 10 Jul due to continuing influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 11 Jul. A return to mostly ambient conditions is forecast for 12 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels (G1 minor) due to CIR influences and CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Conditions are expected to continue ranging primarily from quiet to active conditions, with a continuing chance of an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS influences. Conditions are forecast to be quiet to unsettled on 11 Jul and mostly quiet on 12 July as CH HSS effects wane.

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