[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 08-10 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,630 pfu observed at 07/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 08-10 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: DSCOVR solar wind data reflected a background solar wind environment through about 08/0730 UTC. Thereafter, and through periods end, a slight enhancement in wind parameters was observed coincident with a phi change from a negative to a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced 08-09 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Recurrence and STEREO-A data suggest wind speeds around 500 km/s are likely during the peak phase of CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet this period.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected on 08-09 Feb in response to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 10 Feb as CH HSS influence wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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