[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S08E33, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and produced a pair of low-level B-class flares early in the period. Region 2725 (S11E51, Axx/alpha) remained relatively stable throughout the period and was quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels early in the period, with a peak flux of 29,400 pfu observed at 13/1555 UTC, before decreasing to normal levels following a period of elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate levels late on 14 Oct with high levels likely on 15-16 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 350 km/s to a peak of around 590 km/s, observed at 14/1108 UTC. During initial CH HSS onset early this period, total field strength values reached 13 nT and Bz was sustained southward between 13/1500-1630 UTC. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through early on 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected by 16 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels between 13/1500-2359 UTC in response to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 14 Oct due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes and generally quiet conditions are expected on 16 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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