[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2723 (S08W23, Cao/beta) continued its slow decay with penumbra loss in the leader spot, but did exhibit some intermediate spot development. The region remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (01-03 Oct) with a slight chance for C-class flares due to the weak flare potential of Region 2723.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak flux of 893 pfu observed at 30/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels all three days (01-03 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a mostly nominal wind regime. Total IMF strength ranged between 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed declined from about 425 km/s to end of period speeds near 380 km/s. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become slightly elevated later on day one into day two (01-02 Oct) due to flanking influence of the north polar CH HSS. A return to more ambient background conditions is expected by day three (03 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with a likely period of active conditions late on day one (01 Oct) in response to anticipated enhanced solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (02 Oct) with a return to quiet conditions by day three (03 Oct).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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