[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2715 (N08W54, Cao/beta) underwent decay and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (26-28 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,920 pfu at 25/1635 UTC, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (26 Jun) and decrease to normal to high levels on days two and three (27-28 Jun) due to CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences of a positive polarity CH HSS and a return towards a slow regime. Total IMF strength began the period at nominal background values of 3 to 4 nT, but began a slow and steady increase to reach end of period values of 8 to 9 nT. The Bz component underwent weak deviations early, before it turned steadily southward after 25/0930 UTC. Solar wind speed decreased from around 450 km/s to around 425 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: An approaching CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive on day one (26 Jun). CH HSS onset is expected to take place shortly after CIR arrival and solar wind speed is anticipated to increase late on day one and even more so by day two (27 Jun). CH HSS influences are expected to continue into day three (28 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to the enhanced IMF and a prolonged southward Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin day one (26 Jun) with isolated periods of active to G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to the elevated IMF strength and southward Bz component. Conditions are expected to then decrease to be primarily quiet to unsettled before increasing again later in the day to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely, due to CIR arrival. Unsettled to active conditions, with likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming are again anticipated for day two (27 Jun) due to CH HSS onset coupled with a still enhanced IMF strength associated with CIR passage. Day three (28 Jun) is expected to see quiet to active conditions, with a likely period of G1 storm conditions as CH HSS influences continue.

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