[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C4 flare at 30/0804 UTC from newly numbered Region 2703 (S06E73, Axx/alpha). There was a type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 493 km/s associated with the aforementioned flare. The region also produced several B-class flares in the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three days (30 Mar-01 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum flux of 18,800 pfu observed at 29/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to gradually decrease over the next three days (30 Mar-01 Apr), but remain above high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested the likely passage of a CIR ahead of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from near 350 to 425 km/s. Total field reached a maximum of 10 nT early, then averaged near 5 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component was mostly oriented north. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (30-31 Mar) due periodic influences from a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. A return to nominal levels is expected on day three (01 Apr) as the CH HSS pushes downwind of Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Field conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled on day one (30 Mar) due to intermittent influences from a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. An isolated active period is also possible on day one. CH HSS activity is forecasted to subside on day two (31 Mar) and levels are expected to range from quiet to unsettled. Day three (01 Apr) is likely to be mostly quiet as the bulk of the CH HSS activity wanes.

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