[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. A pair of filament eruptions were observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery beginning at 03/0457 UTC centered near N30W15 and N10W23. We are currently waiting on updated coronagraph imagery to discern if there was associated CME activity.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (03-05 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (03-04 Jul) and moderate to high levels on day three (05 Jul) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CIR followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. At 02/1854 UTC, total field began to increase to a maximum of 15 nT at 02/2241 UTC. The Bz component was mostly north ranging from +12 nT to -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased after 02/2000 UTC from approximately 360 km/s to near 460 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle transitioned from a mostly positive (away) orientation to a negative (towards) sector after 02/1930 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through the rest of day one (03 Jul) and persist into day two (04 Jul) due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects. Waning CH HSS influences are expected by day three (05 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CIR and CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with G1-Minor storm levels likely through the rest of the UTC day on day one (03 Jul) due to continued CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (04 Jul) and mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (05 Jul) as CH HSS conditions diminish.

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