[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A B2 flare was observed at 29/0256 UTC from a plage area near N10E15. There are no visible spots on the solar disk. There were no CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (29 Jun - 1 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a maximum flux value of 2,164 pfu at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (29 Jun - 1 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds averaging approximately 425 km/s throughout the period. Total field was steady at approximately 4 nT while the Bz component did not drop below -3 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a negative (towards) orientation with brief oscillations into positive (away) territory.

Forecast: Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to wane. Nominal solar wind parameters are expected for day one (29 Jun). A non-recurrent positive polarity coronal hole is expected to begin HSS impacts starting on day two (30 Jun) following a SSBC from a negative to positive phi angle orientation. CH effects are expected to persist but also begin to wane on day three (1 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (29 Jun) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are forecast for day two (30 Jun) with the onset of the CH HSS. Waning HSS effects are forecast by day three (1 Jul).

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