[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no visible spots on the solar disk. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (28-30 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a maximum flux value of 1,257 pfu at 27/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (28-30 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds averaging approximately 450 km/s throughout the period. Total field was steady at approximately 4 nT while the Bz component did not drop below -4 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a negative (towards) orientation with brief oscillations into positive (away) territory.

Forecast: Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to wane. Nominal solar wind parameters are expected for days one and two (28-29 Jun). A non-recurrent positive polarity coronal hole is expected to begin HSS impacts starting on day three (30 Jun) following a SSBC from negative to positive phi angle orientation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days days one and two (28-29 Jun) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are forecast for day three (30 Jun) with the onset of the aforementioned CH HSS.

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