[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 flare from Region 2480 (N02E65, Dao/beta). The region continued to develop as it rotated further onto the solar disk, exhibiting penumbral coverage around the trailer spot as well as developing new intermediate spots. Region 2477 (N11E89, Hax/alpha) displayed the onset of some separation in its singular spot. Several different areas of pours were noted and are being monitored for further development.

Several eruptions were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. The most prominent was an eruption from around the SW limb, near old Region 2473, creating a partial halo signature first seen in C2 imagery beginning at 06/1412 UTC. A filament eruption around the same time was observed lifting off the SE limb around 06/1200 UTC. Both events were analyzed and not expected to cause impacts to Earth.

Another eruption in the corona was observed in SDO AIA193 imagery beginning around 06/1241 UTC near Region 2477. Activity from previous eruptions still being present in coronagraph imagery caused difficulty in analyzing an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) signature. The subsequent model run suggested a glancing blow is possible around 09 Jan. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (07-09 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, at the GOES-13 satellite, reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,720 pfu observed at 06/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for days one through three (07-09 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over the next three days (07-09 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated the influence of positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds were elevated through the period, ranging from about 530 - 630 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) near 5 nT through most the period with the a brief enhancement to a peak of 8 nT around 06/2330 UTC. The Bz component of the magnetic field was highly variable from +/- 6 nT. Density remained around 1-2 p/cc. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced, with a gradual decline anticipated over the next three days (07-09 Jan) as the CH HSS persists. A additional minor enhancement is possible on 09 Jan in response to a glancing blow from a 06 Jan CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active periods, due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on day one (07 Jan) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (08 Jan). Day three (09 Jan) is expected to see a return to mostly quiet conditions with possible active periods associated with weak influence from a 06 Jan CME.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation