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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2473 (S20W66, Eao/beta) produced two C2/Sf flares at 01/0638 and 01/0948 UTC, which were the largest events of the period. Region 2473 remains the sole spotted region on the visible disk and exhibited minor growth in its intermediate and trailer spot area this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next two days (01-02 Jan). Once Region 2473 rotates behind the west limb on day three (03 Jan) solar activity is expected to decrease to very low levels.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day (01 Jan) with moderate to high flux levels likely on days two and three (02-03 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of the 28 Dec CME. Solar wind speeds were steady between 425-475 km/s throughout the period. IMF total field strength values (Bt) reached 17 nT and Bz was mostly southward throughout the period, reaching -16 nT. The phi angle transitioned from a positive (away from the Sun) to a negative (toward) solar sector orientation at around 31/1900 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (01 Jan) as the effects of the 28 Dec CME wane. The onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to cause another solar wind enhancement on days two and three (02-03 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels this period due to the continued effects of the 28 Dec CME. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of day one (01 Jan) as CME effects subside. Quiet to active field conditions are expected on days two and three (02-03 Jan) due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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