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[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

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Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Nov 2015 20:07:06 +0000
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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2457 (N12W10, Cao/beta) was in gradual decay, decreasing in spots near the leader and trailer. Region 2458 (N08E28, Dai/beta) exhibited dissipation in its intermediate and trailer spots while showing signs of development near the leader spot. Region 2460 (N12E16, Cro/beta) showed slight decay near the trailer spots. Region 2459 (N04E52, Cro/beta) was mostly stable with minor dissipation of leader spots penumbral area. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor to Moderate) Radio Blackouts for the next three days (26-28 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at nominal levels. Wind speeds were low from around 250 km/s to ~270 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was steady at 2-5 nT while the Bz component varied between -1 and +4 nT. The phi angle varied between positive (away) and negative (towards) for most of the day with a more pronounced rotation into the positive sector by the periods end. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one (26 Nov). A minor enhancement from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is likely for days two and three (27-28 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov). Days two and three (27-28 Nov) are expected to see quiet to unsettled levels due to possible effects from a CH HSS.

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Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 26 20:07 UTC

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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