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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region 2457 (N10E66, Dac/beta) produced a B5 flare at 20/0612 UTC which was the only event observed this period. The region continues to rotate onto the disk. Both Regions 2454 (N12W22, Bxo/beta) and 2456 (N06W23, Dri/beta) underwent minor penumbral decay and consolidation.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (20-22 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME effects followed by weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 425 km/s to end-of-period values near 375 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged from 3-8 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward to 5 nT with a brief period of southward Bz to -6 nT from about 20/0700-0830 UTC. The phi angle was generally steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation with brief positive (away from the Sun) incursions throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels over the next three days (20-22 Nov) due to the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (20-22 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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