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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Oct 26 0558 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 October 2015
Solar activity reached low levels. C-class flares were observed on
19-22 and 24 Oct. Region 2436 (N09, L=112, class/area Ekc/260 on 19
Oct) produced a majority of the activity this period with 13 C-class
flares. Regions 2434 (S10, L=164, class/area Hax/230 on 19 Oct) and
2437 (S20, L=99, class/area Cao/20 on 21 Oct) also produced a few
C-class flares. A partial halo CME associated with a long duration
C4 flare originating from Region 2434 erupted off of the
southwestern portion of the disk on 22 October.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced late on
22 October through midday on 23 October due to a long duration C4
flare from Region 2434. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux breifly
reachex a peak of 1.1 pfu at 22/2305 UTC but began a return to
background levels shortly thereafter.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 20 October with moderate levels recorded on 19, 21-25
October. The high levels were due to an enhanced solar wind
envirornment caused by coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
levels were observed on 19 October and quiet to unsettled levels
were observed on 20, 22-25 October under nominal solar wind
conditions. Quiet to active levels were observed on 21 October as an
equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective
position. Wind speed increased to a peak of near 480 km/s by about
21/1900 UTC, total field strength peaked at 13 nT while the Bz
component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT at about
21/1130 UTC. The CME from 2434 that occurred on 22 October arrived
at the ACE spacecraft on 24 October at 1828 UTC. The solar wind
became enhanced with the shock passage but only unsettled levels
were observed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 October - 21 November 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26 - 31 October.
Moderate to high levels are expected on 01-13 November as a series
of coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs) become geoeffective
enhancing the solar wind environment. Normal to moderate levels are
expected from 14 - 21 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 03-04 November with G1 (Minor) storm
levels expected on 05, 08-10, and 14 November, all due to the
influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Active field conditions are expected
on 29 October, 06-07, 13, and 17 November with only quiet to
unsettled levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Oct 26 16:10 UTC]()
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