[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/SF flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E32, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) grew a bit in area and increased in magnetic complexity. We are awaiting imagery to investigate whether the later C-class flares were associated with any CMEs.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (25-27 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once again at high levels with a max flux of 11,600 pfu at 24/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit indicated a slight enhancement to near .5 pfu shortly after 24/0800 UTC. This activity is believed to be associated with the far-side CME.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to remain at high levels through day three (27 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is slightly enhanced above background levels (Below S1-Minor) and expected to return background conditions by day two (26 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream. Wind speed hovered between 600 and 550 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while Bz remained at or above -5 nT. Phi was positive.

Forecast: The high speed wind stream is expected to dominate the solar wind environment through day one (25 Mar), gradually decreasing through days two and three (26-27 Mar). Waning velocities are expected to decrease to near 400 km/s by end of the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to the continued influence of the high speed solar wind stream.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, through day one (25 Mar). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two through three (26-27 Mar) as the high speed stream wanes.

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