This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're
currently subscribed to. Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________
Tad:
I have had a discussion with the Lead Forecaster at NOAA/SWPC, just to
confirm that these are cycle 23 spots. Interestingly, there's a news
item out today from Space Weather regarding the three spots, with some
quotes from David Hathaway.
My exchange with Chris at SWPC is summarized here and is in agreement
with David:
The three spots are definitely cycle 23 spots since they are in the
south and have negative polarity leading. The little bipole at about
N12 (which doesn't have spots) also has the right polarity for cycle
23. What we are looking for with new cycle spots is high latitude and
a polarity switch, so that the leading polarity in the north becomes
negative and the leading polarity in the south becomes positive. One
should also note that there is an 'overlap' period when new cycle
spots are phasing in and old spots are phasing out. The official
marker of the change from cycle 23 and cycle 24 occurs when the
smoothed monthly
sunspot number goes through a minimum, so what happens is that you
have a period of time at the end of Cycle 23 when you see a sprinking
of new cycle spots and at the beginning of cycle 24 you have a period
of time when you see a few occasional old cycle spots.
Also, even though the polarity rule is true for the great majority of
spots, you can get an occasional exception to the rule at any time in
the cycle.
As the press release indicates, we are in an in-between phase where
the two cycles are active at the same time. The statistical end is
not a real boundary between cycles, just a mathematical boundary. An
other interesting point from David Hathaway is that he's now
predicting a peak in the cycle in 2012.
Back to the radio end of this. We are in the middle of some elevated
geomagnetic activity and the bands are suffering a bit by that. Flux
is up, but ionospheric conditions at my location are less than
optimal. This weekend is a big contest. It will be a moderately good
contest with the higher flux level, but there are paths suffering
under the planetary K of 4's and 5's expected.
There is also a change of C-class flares, and some CME influence, as well.
Tomas David Hood
Amateur Radio Operator, NW7US
Contributing editor:
CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications
http://hfradio.org / http://nw7us.spaces.live.com/
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|