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My complete propagation forecast will be published tomorrow morning. However
geomagnetic storming is imminent so I'm publishing a brief advisory today.
Coronal Hole #223A became geoeffective (Earth Facing) on May 8, 2006 and
Coronal Hole #223B on May 10, 2006. These two smaller Coronal Holes were one
large one last month and was numbered #CH220. This Coronal Hole produced
significant geomagnetic storming with a Kp of 7 (strong) and an Ap of 111
(severe).
This time around I expect minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5), with periods of
moderate geomagnetic storming (Kp-6). The geomagnetic storming should begin
today and last through May 13, 2006.
Geomagnetic storming lowers the MUF so we can expect poorer band conditions on
10-20 meters on high latitude propagation paths. If the geomagnetic storming
ends up stronger than I'm currently forecasting then mid latitude propagation
paths may also be negatively impacted.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" and error prone public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce
my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and
made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast
outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2006 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of information
herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given. Also space weather
forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and
outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to
human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
--... ...--,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space Plasma Physicist & Meteorologist
Lakeland, FL, USA
Grid Square EL97AW
kn4lf@arrl.net
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
Feld Hell Club Member #FH141
National Veterans Ham Radio Club Member
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
KN4LF 160 Meter Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
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