Very interesting. That prediction, if accurate, would give a cycle
duration of at least 14 years instead of the nominal 11 years. I can't
find anything in the historical record that would indicate such a
drastic deviation. The only possible exception I could find is that the
first cycle coming out of the Maunder Minimum looks like it may have
been significantly longer than 11 years ... the data preceding the
Maunder Minimum looks too sketchy to tell. Hopefully that's not where
we're headed.
It just seems that the NASA projection sounds more like a "we don't
really know" proposition more than anything else. That's certainly fair
at this point, but I'm not going to take down my tribander based upon
it. ;)
73,
Dave AB7E
On 12/7/2018 10:50 PM, donovanf@starpower.net wrote:
NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar flux
through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions ended in 2019.
Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December 2018,
declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1 during February 2021
through January 2022, and 0 after that and through at least the end of 2022.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
I hate predictions, especially about the future...
73
Frank
W3LPL
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