Bill,
An interesting analysis. I'm taking the liberty of including it with my
reply here on the CQ-Contest Reflector (even though you sent only to me and
NCCC).
My impression is that the high participation of NCCC/PVRC is
noticeable. Some anecdotal data -- Somewhere in an SS Soapbox or 3830
Reflector post (I think in 2011), there are comments about all the MDC/VA
stations. I've heard similar comments even during the SS ("Another MDC.
There sure are a lot of you guys."). I think the "Rare Sections" lists in
the ARRL reports shows VA and MD tops in QSOs.
My question is: Does it make SS less fun for everybody else? Still no
replies from them.
Below my sig are some data I dug out. Below that is your analysis.
73, Art K3KU
...........................................................................................
I was thinking mostly about 2012. From the score rumors (based on 3830
Reflector postings) it seemed that PVRC was way ahead, and there was some
curiosity here that maybe you guys had not made a serious effort. The Club
Scores in ARRL's preliminary report for SS 'Phone sure looked that way.
(These include CW and 'Phone, right?)
2012 Unlimited Category Points Entries
Potomac Valley Radio Club 20,112,044 267
Northern California Contest Club 8,116,740 107
But wait! Maybe PVRC just had a super-duper turnout in 2012. So I looked
back a couple of years.
2011
Potomac Valley Radio Club 22,897,542 291
Northern California Contest Club 14,750,346 189
2010
Potomac Valley Radio Club 21,489,580 273
Northern California Contest Club 20,159,038 286
2009
Potomac Valley Radio Club 24,356,974 302
Northern California Contest Club 22,712,498 332
Looks like a downward trend in entries by both Clubs from 2009 to 2012. (I
took enough short courses in statistics and enough courses in probability
to know that I have no idea what this data means.)
...................................................................................................
On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 3:35 PM, Bill Haddon <haddon.bill@gmail.com> wrote:
> Let's look at some actual numbers to assess the extent to which NCCC's not
> highlighting Sweepstakes influenced the Sweepstakes, over-all:
>
> For 2011 (one of the years cited by the K3KU message):
>
> Total points in Sweepstakes CW: ~85,000,000
> Points from PVRC: 10,113,000
> Points from NCCC: 7,970,000
>
> Suppose NCCC had emphasized SS and that NCCC tied PVRC:
> Increase in Sweepstakes scores under this scenario: ~2.6% of total
> SS CW points.
>
> It does appear that NCCC contributed a bit less in 2012 (can't tell easily
> since the CW and Phone scores are not individually summed in the NCCC
> database), but I'd guess NCCC generated about 6,000,000 CW points (but many
> members' scores went to MLDXCC). So there might be about a 5% impact on
> overall Sweepstakes activity from our failure to stress the Sweepstakes in
> 2012. A relatively small effect.
>
> 73 Bill n6zfo
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