As a lifetime true-blue dyed-in-the-wool statistical wonk, this solar cycle
presentation is the statistical equivalent of Jascha Heifitz playing the
violin.
We always have to wait and see how things play out, for sure. But... And a
very delightful "but..." at that...
But... For the first time in my lifetime this presentation on the Hale
Cycle describes a method capable of "predicting the solar cycle past",
being able to predict what happened at a point in the past only from what
was known prior to that point in the past.
The Hale Cycle is a 22-ish year cycle with a positive and negative half.
The Hale halves vary from 8 to 14 years, if I heard that right. Our 11-ish
year sunspot cycle apparently derives from the two phases of a Hale Cycle.
No explanation for what drives the variation in the Hale Cycle, but that's
for all the budding solar physicists.
There is a passing reference to a correlation between Hale events and El
Nino, climate stuff. But not expounded.
The flip in the Hale Cycle is a sharp, measurable event, maybe happened
last month, would explain going from nothing on 10m and 15m in October, to
bum 160 and lively high bands again in the CQWW CW.
Won't spoil it for the viewer, but there is a surprising estimate for cycle
25, using the same method that correctly predicts cycle 19 from cycle 18,
the Dalton minimum from prior cycles, basically predicts 20th century solar
cycle intensities.
This one is a must-watch: https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g
The statistical methodology is absolutely top-shelf. Wow. It's really great
to see something done this well.
73, Guy K2AV
On Tue, Dec 1, 2020 at 8:33 AM Michael Walker <va3mw@portcredit.net> wrote:
> It isn't about the 11 year Solar Cycle. That is just the symptom.
>
> It is about the 22 year Hale Cycle.
>
> Well worth the watch. I won't spoil the ending.
>
> Mike va3mw
>
> https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g
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