> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
> 11 APRIL, 2005
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
> (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 11 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
> Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 85, 85, 85.
> Average 90-day Solar Flux: 96.
> Current Middle Latitude A-Index: N/A
> Current Boulder K-Indices: 2201 24**
> Current Planetary K-Indices: 1101 23**
> Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 20, 20, 12.
> Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 25, 25, 15.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
> Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253
> utc from region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity
> consisted of occasional B-class events.
>
> Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very
> low to low for the next three days (12-14 april).
>
> The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the
> period
> until around 1500 utc, after which conditions became unsettled to
> active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about
> 1440 utc, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and
> enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with
> solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably
> positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic
> polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 mev electron fluxes
> reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
>
> Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
> expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 april) as
> the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive
> activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during
> this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled
> with occasional active periods for the third day (14 april).
>
> Event probabilities 12 apr-14 apr
>
> Class M 01/01/01
> Class X 01/01/01
> Proton 01/01/01
> PCAF green
>
> Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 apr-14 apr
>
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 35/35/20
> Minor storm 25/25/15
> Major-severe storm 10/10/10
>
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 35/35/20
> Minor storm 30/30/15
> Major-severe storm 15/15/10
>
>
> ** End of Daily Report **
> _______________________________________________
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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