[Propagation] Coronal Mass Ejection detected: Major GeomagneticStorm Predicted

["NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@hfradio.org>]

NW7US Propagation Update (15 January 2005 0840 UTC)

During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15  
January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed.   
This indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed  
directly toward Earth).  The start time of this Type II burst was 0554 UTC  
15 January 2005.  The shock speed is estimated at 1300 km/s - this is a  
MAJOR SHOCK.  An extremely strong Type IV event followed the Type II  
event.  The sweep looks optically correlated with the flare from region  
0720.  (To see the sweep, browse to

http://prop.hfradio.org/ips_type2event-20050115.gif (IPS))

The way this is shaped (PARALLEL RIBBON), a proton event is indicated that  
may begin in coming hours.  Energetic solar proton events adversely impact  
tran-polar HF propagation circuits.  This level of event may well span  
into middle latitudes.

It is now expected that the start of January 16 will see strong  
geomagnetic storminess, increasing to MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC storminess, then  
declining late on January 17 to active levels.  This could well be a major  
Aurora event, as well.  *STRONGLY DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED* from 16 January through 17 January 2005.

Additional details will be reported when available.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
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