[Propagation] NW7US Propagation Prediction : CQ WW SSB Contest, 30,31 October 2004

["NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@hfradio.org>]

During the last weekend of this month (the CQ WW SSB contest weekend, 30  
and 31 October 2004), we should experience good conditions. While we won't  
see very high sunspot counts, we do have enough activity to liven up the  
HF bands.

The 10.7-cm flux will be averaging between 100 and 130. This will mean  
that 20 meters will be the string, primary contest band, with 15 meters a  
significant player during the daylight hours.  On the 10 meter band, there  
will be a sprinkling of openings, but this band will not give you that  
much of an extra edge.  The edge will come from moving from 20 on down.   
The lower bands (40 through 160) will be more stable, with the seasonal  
decrease in noise, as well as the stablizing due to more quiet geomagnetic  
conditions.

Speaking of geomagnetic conditions, here's what's to be expected during  
the contest weekend.  The planetary A index (Ap) is forecast to be between  
5 and 10 - not too shabby.  The peak planetary K index (Kp) is expected to  
stay around 3 or less.  So, this is not a perfect quiet condition.   
Never-the-less, there shouldn't be significant degradation of the level of  
ionization.

Between now (25 October 2004) and the weekend, we will see an elevation of  
the geomagnetic activity, perhaps to storm levels.  However, I do expect  
that to subside in time for the contest.  Since the influence if the  
current coronal hole, and the arrival of the CME from a recent flare, will  
pass by October 28, we should see things stable enough for a long enough  
period prior to the start date.  However, if the disturbance continued  
into 28 October, or even the next day, then the ionosphere may not have  
enough time to stablize well enough for a good start to the contest.

My Last Minute Forecast ( http://hfradio.org/lastminute_propagation.html )  
shows a High-Normal for 30 October, and Above-Normal for 31 October.   
Barring any major flaring and coronal mass ejections, this should be an  
exciting and productive contest weekend.

I'll create one more update just prior to the CQ WW SSB weekend. And, I'll  
be posting my predictions for the CQ WW CW weekend, too. Good luck, DXer's!

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57,  AR Lighthouse Society 144 :
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