At 1955Z, 4-XI-2003, an X-class flare peaked from region 486. Initial data
from
GEOS 12 indicates that the flare is an X18, while GEOS 10 shows it as X17.
However, there is speculation (i.e., Thomas Giella (KN4LF), others) that it
might be much stronger, as this event saturated the sensor for 11 minutes. I
have viewed preliminary images of this very bright and significant flare, and
it
is truly amazing.
If the flare is larger than the X17 flare from recent activity, this will
become
one of the two most powerful flares recorded. The flare has caused extensive
radio blackout conditions on most of the HF radio spectrum. Ground wave
communications is not significantly impacted, nor is line-of-sight VHF and
above.
A type II Radio Emission began at 1942Z 4-XI-2003 with an estimated velocity of
1268 km/s. Interplanetary type II bursts are statistically strongly associated
with fast CME and interplanetary shock waves (Cane, Shelley & Howard 1987).
Thus, there is a chance that we will have at least a glancing blow from the
side
of the possible CME associated with this new flare. I will update when more
data is known.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! :
: Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) :
: WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 :
---------------------------------------------------------------
The world's top contesters battle it out in Finland!
THE OFFICIAL FILM of WRTC 2002 now on professional DVD and VHS!
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~jamesb/
---------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
CQ-Contest mailing list
CQ-Contest@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/cq-contest
|