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Tom W7WHY wrote:
> Things are picking up!!. I heard the Prop forcast from W1AW
> over the weekend, and they said one year from today the sunspot
> count would be around 99 and the flux around 127.
Unfortunately the full text of the report indicates that actual
measured values are falling below predicted values.
The text of Propagation Report ARLP019 de KT7H states:
"Solar flux and sunspot numbers were still the same, stuck in the
doldrums with no sign of increased activity from a new solar cycle.
A new projection from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center
forecasts a smoothed solar flux of 100 for this July, but so far the
predicted values have been increasingly ahead of actual measured values.
It shows the expected smoothed solar flux for January through April of
this year as 77, 80, 84 and 87, while the actual monthly averages have
been 74, 73.8, 73.5 and 74.5.
The projected smoothed flux for May is 91, but combining the actual flux
for the first eight days of May with subsequent projected values for the
month shows an average of only 71.4, so the gap between the actual
average values versus the projected smoothed values has grown over
January through May from 3, 6.2, 9.5, 12.5 to 19.6. This same forecast
projects a smoothed solar flux of 149 and sunspot number of 99 one year
from now. One can only hope that reality will catch up with the
projection."
Regards,
Martin ZL1ANJ
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