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Dropoff theory

Subject: Dropoff theory
From: SLP9M@CC.USU.EDU (Scott E. Parker)
Date: Fri Dec 11 09:49:26 1992
Dave K1MBO writes:

>I wrote a program to go through the log and bin out the histogram of
>year-licensed. I was suprised to find a dramatic drop off after the early 
>seventies. I haven't done it on this year's logs yet, but I hope to get
>around to it. There doesn't seem to be much reason for such a drop, but
>it was sure there.

Here's my two-bit attempt at a dropoff theory.  Back in the early seventies
techs had no HF prveleges.  People didn't have access to computers with code
practice programs.  In some areas of the country there wasn't a lot of VHF FM
activity.  *THE* way to upgrade was to get on the air and work people. 
Going from novice to tech was considered a dead end as your code practice
opportunities were gone (yes, there was the listen only mode, but that was more
like study and work whereas woring people was play).  The consequence of all
this was that most people who made general and up were well on there way to
being a proficient HF operator.  

Contrast this to the current scenario.  The entry level license is the tech
ticet for many (most?) and their first exposure to operating is 2m FM.  There
are extras out there who did it all by computer and have never worked anyone on
CW.  Because of the way people get into ham radio or for whatever reason there
are many in the higher license classes who lack enough exposure to real world
operating to make a contest an enjoyable activity for them.

Or so it seems to me....

73, -SEP
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