Gene - You wrote:
At least for the June contest, the east coast is at a serious
DISADVANTAGE.
Es is much better from the midwest and the southwest. In fact were the
ARRL
VHF contests not all microwave contests, the east coast could only be
COMPETITIVE one year in five in June, a year when Es is poor. Likewise
about
once every 5 years there is midwestern tropo that never crosses the
Appalachian Mountains. During that year the east coast will not win
unless
they manufacture contacts on the microwaves.
It appears that a look at the standings show that the June Es advantage that
some of the other parts of the country have over the East brings up the rest of
the country to be competitive with the East, not put the East at a
disadvantage. When it comes to the standings year in and year out, the East
does well. The microwave contacts factor can be eliminated by looking at the
limited multi scores only. The results for the East are certainly not as bleak
as you paint them.
________________________________________________________________________________
Geographic distribution of top ten in the Limited Multi-op category for June
ARRL
________________________________________________________________________________
Year East Others First Place Notes
_____________________________________________________________
2009 7 3 Other (IL) Typical Propagation?
2008 5 5 Other (STX) Good Es
2007 7 3 East (WPA) Poor Es
2006 7 3 Other (IL) Good Es
2005 6 4 Other (IL)
2004 7 3 East (WV)
2003 5 5 Other (IL)
2002 8 2 East (WV)
The data is harder to extract from the ARRL pages for years before 2002, so I
did not go back further.
I draw the conclusion from this data that the East is competitive year in and
year out, good Es or not, and although is not a shoe-in to win the category
year after year, competes well for it. For first place, that is winning, there
is a 3/5 disadvantage for the East coast over the past 8 June contests, but
overall, there is a 52/28 advantage for the East in top ten finishes in the
Limited Multi-op category. I would hardly call this a serious disadvantage,
certainly not the one year in five you quote. And although the East doesn't win
every year, I would hardly call taking 5 or more of the top 10 places in this
category year after year, regardless of propagation conditions, a serious
disadvantage.
I only used the Limited Multi category to eliminate the east's capability to
"manufacture contacts on microwave". I realize that this might skew the results
a bit, but I think that the overall results are similar, except that the East
in the form of W2SZ/1 or K8GP, is in first place year after year. Striking in
all this, at least to me, is the absence of a strong west coast presence in any
category other than rover. But that is fodder for another cannon.
I am not complaining about geographic advantages, nor lobbying for leveling the
playing field, nor do I want to start a thread about those topics. But if we
are going to talk about these issues, we can do so using available data. One
can argue about the interpretation of the data, but not the data itself.
Anyway, I look forward to your webinar and really want to know how to be more
competitive in a location that has a low density of VHF contesters. I rove,
which helps a lot, but that clearly is not the answer for everyone. It isn't
even a complete answer for me. - Duffey
--
KK6MC
James Duffey
Cedar Crest NM
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