Tnx for the comments on my “Other Impacts” working paper. KK6MC did a nice
summary of it in his recent post to this reflector. It is part of a series of
papers exploring the cyclical nature of VHF contesting. The entire series has
been loosely described as “VHF Trends”.
As requested in another post, here are references to the VHF Trends series:
Historical contest data points back (1948 to 2002+) were initially developed,
and are located at: http://www.w9smc.com/SMC%20VHF/uvhfdata.pdf
Very early UHF contacts and contest activity (1926 to 1948) was explored in:
http://www.w9smc.com/SMC%20VHF/earlycontacts.pdf A summary of this paper
entitled “Contesting on the Ultra-Highs” was published in the 2007 CSVHF
Conference Proceedings.
A general history of early VHF activity is at:
http://www.w9smc.com/SMC%20VHF/Consolidated%20history.pdf
I fleshed out some basic concepts in the “Trends I” article: “Trends in VHF
Contesting”, National Contest Journal, Jan / Feb 2004, p. 6- 8. An early draft
of the NCJ article is at SMC Black Hole, Dec. 2003;
http://www.w9smc.com/blackhole/3-04.PDF
The Trends II article added more details: “Trends in VHF Contesting, Part II,
SMC Black Hole, Jan. 2004. http://www.w9smc.com/blackhole/04-01.PDF
I thought about the influence of the VHF clubs in: “The Role of Clubs on VHF
Contest Log Entries”, Mt. Airy VHF Club Cheese Bits, January, 2005; which is
also at: SMC Black Hole, Dec. 2004, p.3 +.
http://www.w9smc.com/blackhole/news0604.pdf
I then lumped a lot of things into the working paper “Other Impacts” that was
noted in the KK6MC post, and have updated it from time to time:
http://www.w9smc.com/SMC%20VHF/OtherImpactsarticle.pdf
By this time, I developed a formal model that explained the cyclical nature of
VHF logs: “A Descriptive Model of VHF Contest Activity”, NCJ, May/June, 2005,
p. 14-16.
An outline of the descriptive model is at:
http://www.w9smc.com/SMC%20VHF/Outline.pdf
I looked at historical trends in the CQ VHF in: “Trends in the CQ VHF Contest”,
CQ VHF, Spring, 2006.
Using the descriptive model and many items contained in the Other Impacts
working paper, I then statistically tested the contest data points in: “A
Statistical Model of VHF Contest Activity”, CSVHF Society 2006 Conference
Proceedings.
The recent strength in June VHF and July CQ VHF logs was examined in: “Are
Changes ‘Blowing in the Wind’ on VHF?”, March, 2007, National Contest Journal.
The culmination of the Trend series is contained in: “The Past, Present, and
Future of VHF Contests”, QST, (pending). I do not know when this article will
appear in QST, however.
In developing this series, I have received very helpful comments and thoughts
from dozens of amateurs. Many of these comments have then been incorporated
into the more recent articles. After reading any of the above papers, if anyone
has further thoughts on causative factors which may explain the peaks and
valleys experienced in VHF contesting, please let me know. I am always looking
for more ideas to test out and think through.
Kevin
W9GKA
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