Rob Atkinson wrote:
> The recent world financial crisis has resulted in a dramatic slowdown
> in construction projects world-wide. Motor vehicle sales have dropped
> causing a production slowdown and these two factors have decreased the
> demand for steel, aluminum and copper. The result of this has been a
> markedly lessened demand for raw metals globally causing a price drop
> over the past three weeks of 60% for steel, and 25% for copper and a
> corresponding decrease in value for aluminum. For radio people this
> is good news in two ways:
>
>
BUT! for "New" raw materials the steel suppliers will have to sell off
their present stock before passing on the new lower prices. What they
pay won't go down much depending on the wholesalers and their's depends
on the fabricating plants which depend on the raw materials.
Supply and demand also plays a part, with it playing a larger part the
closer you get to the raw materials. Where I purchase steel stock,
plate and tube goes through a LOT of steel and their prices are notably
less than the other supplier in town when it comes to smaller
quantities. Still I don't expect to see much of a change for at least 6
months. I would expect copper products to take longer, but remember
we've seen a 5X price increase in copper over the past couple of years.
That would amount to an 80% reduction to equal the price two or three
years ago.
For us to see a pronounced drop in finished prices would mean a
prolonged global recession. Something that quite likely would reduce
our disposable income and likely hood of purchasing said materials.
> 1. Scrap metal values have tanked. Theft of exposed "opportunity"
> metals such as feedlines, radials, and strap should decline once
> thieves realize they can no longer get very much money for stolen
> scrap metal.
>
Money is money and whether it's 50 cents a pound or $5.00 a pound
they'll be after it. With a prolonged "global" recession there will be a
lot more of "them" after it. A typical global recession lasts at least
three times as long as a country wide recession.
> 2. Consumers should start to see the raw metal price drop show up in
> lower prices for communications hardware by the time antenna project
> season rolls around next year.
>
>
A start is a long way from where the prices were just a couple of years
ago. On top of that, the prices for some materials such as coal are
likely to double or even triple in the next one to three years. That
means the electricity from those coal fired power plants is going to get
expensive. With the price of energy and most fuels remaining high it
will prevent the cost of new raw materials from dropping much, or at
least not as much as they would have based solely on supply and demand.
Expect the price of gas to fluctuate widely. Based solely on supply and
demand with high unemployment it may settle out fairly low for a while,
but don't forget China and India's growing needs. As soon as prices of
raw materials drop they, and the rest of the world will be right back in
the game.
Speaking of that forecast of high unemployment. They are talking figures
close to what we see in Michigan in a good year.
So I doubt we see much of a change in the price of Aluminum tubing. I
could be wrong . I was once before<:-))
73 and hope for the best,
Roger (K8RI)
> 73,
>
> rob / k5uj
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