----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Lux" <jimlux@earthlink.net>
To: "Keith Dutson" <kdutson@sbcglobal.net>; <towertalk@contesting.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2006 5:44 PM
Subject: Re: [TowerTalk] Copper wire prices
> At 01:26 PM 11/16/2006, Keith Dutson wrote:
>>[snip]
>>And now you can see why aluminum might not be such a bad alternative.
>>Prices on aluminum haven't gone up as much as for copper (in proportion).
>>Granted, it's a bit trickier to bond than copper (I don't think thermite
>>will work with aluminum like it does with copper <grin>).
Depending on your soil conditions it might last forever or not even a year.
>>
>>Some may not realize what you are grinning about. To illustrate, consider
>>the solid rocket boosters used on the space shuttle are fueled with a
>>mixture of ammonium perchlorate and powdered aluminum suspended in an
>>epoxy
>>resin.
>
>
> or, that CadWeld powder is a mixture of copper oxide and aluminum
> powder (thermite)
I thought thermite was Iron Oxide and powdered Aluminum. That stuff will go
through a concrete floor like butter.
http://www.ilpi.com/genchem/demo/thermite/index.html Originally it was only
this mixture, now it often refers to almost any strongly exothermic reaction
producing molten metal.
>
>
>
>>[snip]
>>There is *speculation* that copper prices will fall next year, so you
>>might
And I might win the lottery. It is indeed possible the prices might fall
*some* next year but it's also quite possible today's prices will look cheap
in a year. There are too many variables to make it a sure pick.
*Historically* you could expect the price to return to near normal
(including inflation), but historically we have never had such a demand for
steel and copper and it's a _rapidly_*growing* demand.
>>be able to do some options trading to get tomorrows price today (plus a
>>premium). (aluminum prices also fell yesterday) But hey..
>>are we commodity speculators or antenna builders.
Yes<:-))
>>
>>That speculation has a lot to do with reduction in troops in Iraq. Right
>>now it's a crap shoot IMO.
>
Those speculators need to adjust their formulas and start with reality. The
price of Copper has very little to do with Iraq and is amost entirely due
to the tremendous industrial expansion going on in China. China is now a
ravenous consumer and importer of raw materials where not too long ago it
was an exporter. Remember our steel mills?
They have several projects undeway including daming the Yangtze River (Three
Gorges Dam) that dwarf previous world records one being the world's largest
hydroelectric gererating plant. They are also footing the cost of relocating
over one million people including building new housing and demolishing the
old. They need steel so bad they are breaking up the old concrete to get
the rerod.
I use a lot of steel stock (square tube and flat). It has almost doubled in
the last year. A week ago I was given a price for 20 Ga, 1" square tube
that was more than I paid for 1" tube with an 1/8" wall about two years ago.
Two 6 X 6 X 6 X 1/2" flat plate cut to a triangualr shape (no charge for
cutting) and four 2 X 6 X 1/2" bar stock cost me $13. (to fasten guy wire
anchors to 5" steel posts) That is well more than double the previous
purchase of that type.
> Not entirely.. Copper is a pretty classic cyclical commodity. When
> the price goes up, it becomes worthwhile to open up more mining,
> which takes some time (9-12 months, as I recall from an former
Like most commodities Copper has been cyclic, but China has added a new
dimension to the equation. Prices will still fluctuate, but I'd bet we are
not going to see much relief until either/or new reserves are found and
China's demand tapers off. We could very well be at what will be a low for
the next cycle...or even lower. Who know? I would predict we aren't going to
see much relief for a few years at least, not the 9 to 12 months.
If you want a real shock, go price copper pipe.<:-))
Roger Halstead (K8RI and ARRL 40 year Life Member)
N833R - World's oldest Debonair CD-2
www.rogerhalstead.com
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