With some 30 years experience in the biz of ham radio let me add 2 ents
worth.
1. Ham radio has been dying for over 30 years. Whether you believe Wayne
Green is right blaming ARRL's incentive licensing or the internet or lack of
promotion doesn't matter. Nearly 90% of all ham stores are closed, over 90%
of all ham manufacturers are out of business.
2. There is almost no interest in ham radio by anyone out side of the hobby
anywhere in the world. There are a flood of new "no code" G land hams
similar to the flood of no-code hams here, but I predict that as here, most
of them will not invest in more than a 2 meter HT and after a while lose
interest as has happened here. For all the new hams there is still not a
crowding on HF and less than a half dozen repeaters in Chicago have enough
users to key it up to show life. in NYC there are nearly no repeater users
except illegal unlicensed cab drivers using them for business speaking in
arabic. League membership as a percentage of licensed hams is at historic
low.
3. If you take into account the 10 year lag between license renewals and a
percentage for SK's that arenot yet reported as such, most are never reported
until the 2 year renewal grace period is passed, you find that the "active"
ham population is about 1/3 less than the stated "licensed" hams.
4. Stores including the big names are all reporting sales are down 30-50%.
AES tells me that walk in trade is nearly non-existant because hams shop the
internet to get the lowest price or use the 800 numbers, and this has
increased until 80% or more of all sales are phone or internet based. The few
in store sales are "lookers" and tire kickers who buy little stuff but mostly
buy the rigs via option 1-2. One manufacturer tells me sales are off 60%
from three years ago and 80% from 10 years ago.
5. There is little effort to get any substantial growth in either activity
or new hams. the same old contests, sweepstakes, and OSCAR stuff has almost
no interest to non hams and although I don't keep track of entries, I would
like to know if the number of contest and award logs are going up or down. My
guess is down.
6. In conversations with the FCC over the decades, their usual comment about
ham radio growth is, "If we handed out Extra class ham licenses on the corner
for free, no one would take them." that is a direct quote from top FCC
brass. there are many there that if it wern't for our emergency uses, would
just as soon eliminate all ham radio and sell the spectrum to big commercial
interests. Thats all spectrum, not just a UHF or SHF band or two as they are
doing now. The "international goodwill" is of no value with all the mideast
wars, terrorism, etc. If the bulk of hams were not over 60 and too old to do
much more than sit and drink beer and fart on 40 meters, we could mount a
good terrorism emergency plan that might be of interest to the non ham world
and the Government, but I don't see anyone, let alone Newington leading the
charge on that one either. just the ususal MARS, RACES and 2 meter HT
repeaters. We can forget finding much new technology since the size of stuff
today is too small for us to even see without a microscope or large lens,
unless you can come up with a new math algorithm that makes some significant
improvement in digital. the lab boys are way beyond all but a handful of
hams in that area. Redesigning old 1 tube receivers and transmitters for
"third world" countries is a waste of time since the hams there have to be
rich enough just to get a license and station, and aren't about to build
jungle radios. Even the drug lords buy all new gear for their cleandestine
operations, not home brew or flea market stuff.
7. If it weren't for the CB'ers buying ham gear to operate on 10, 11 and in
between, at power levels to 25 KW, most of the HF gear sales would be 90%
lower also.
8. When those of us who are over 50 die, the ham population will be under
125,000 and ARRL membership will be less than 15,000. new hams do not join
ARRL. no code hams do not join ARRL. they also do not buy magazine
subscriptions, or expensive gear, usually a 1-2 band HT, a mobile antenna and
an amp if the repeater is more than a few miles away.
73
Henry AA9XW
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