Bill, good reads, thank you.
It seems that the consensus is that cycle 25 will be less active than
cycle 24, with some projections putting it at the lowest in many
cycles. I think the theory is that the speed of the conveyor belt is
an indicator the vigor of the coming cycle.
Do we have any predictions that are gaining acceptance that give us
any clues on what the rest of cycle 24 will look like, and the
beginning of cycle 25? I guess its no mistake you posted this on
topband - meaning we've got a nice topband future for the coming
years, but maybe highbands not so much?
Very interested in continued discussion...
73 de N6GQ
On Sun, Jun 5, 2016 at 5:47 AM, Bill Tippett <btippett@alum.mit.edu> wrote:
> Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the
> sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th.
> Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant
> dark cores.
>
> What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and
> forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
> Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low
> sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.
>
> The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible
> surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of
> magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The
> current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning
> <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>.
>
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
>
> Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between
> now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank
> stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect
> space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting
> changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
> decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows
> space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks,
> bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate
> the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge
> <http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/> is
> already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!
>
> http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/
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