Hello Folks
The new season is starting early this year, yesterday VQ9LA was Q5 at my
sunset in S Florida, last year we had a similar QSO last week of August as
well. I'm telling you that to say some thing very controversial about 160m
propagation forecast, it seems to me that propagation this season may follow
what he had last year on TB. One observation that was pretty solid was my
QSO's over the polar cup into Z18 and Z19.
Work zone 18 or 19 is very rare for us in South Florida. I noticed 3
different windows and a very defined patterns that deserve more attention, I
was following A index on this site
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
The Solar Terrestrial Activity report has a chart with Solar Flux and
Planetary index daily plot. The Planetary A index is a blue line and last
Fall there was a repetitive pattern that it seems to repeat itself this
year, After a two or three large spikes the A index become quite bellow
index 5 for 10 or more days, at the last few days of this quite period
condition for QSO's crossing the north pole was amazing, My QSO's with zone
18 and 19 were exactly at the last day of this calm period,
I think this will happen again this year; the abnormal behavior of A index
is starting again. Looking into the A index chart it is possible to forecast
very good condx on Sept 6-8, Oct 4-6 and Nov 2-4.
My point is that the A index does not help to forecast propagation based on
the number it self, but based how long it is bellow A=5, I believe that
after 7 to 10 days below 5 we can expect very unusual condx on polar path
propagation.
Has anyone noticed that patter before?
Good motivation fellows low band lovers, watch for those days, it could
bring a nice surprise in your log.
Regards
JCarlos
N4IS
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