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Topband: predicting 160m propagation

Subject: Topband: predicting 160m propagation
From: Carl K9LA <>
Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2007 17:38:41 -0500
List-post: <>
Bud W2RU said:

>Clearly, Flux / A / K numbers alone are insufficient to explain the
>difference between yesterday and today.  What else should I be looking at?

There have been several attempts over the years to identify trends in solar and 
geomagnetic indices that predict propagation on 160m. I don't beleive any of 
them met with much success (as you also concluded).

What that says is there are other variables running around that we simply don't 
understand. First, I persoanlly believe the biggest hole in our knowledge is 
events in the lower atmosphere that couple up to the lower ionosphere. Second, 
I don't think we fully understand all that happens with elevated K indices.

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll figure this out in our lifetime.

So listen, listen, listen.

Carl K9LA 

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