Topband: AstroAlert: Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection prompts Aurora Watch

[Cary Oler <oler@solar.spacew.com>(by way of Bill Tippett<btippett@alum.mit.edu>)]

        This could be what the doctor ordered to shake up
160 conditions!  Conditions couldn't get much worse than they
were this morning.  And to W2PM, don't feel too bad...the
JA's weren't extremely strong here when the W1's were
giving them 579's.  As they say, that's Topband!

				73,  Bill  W4ZV

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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================

                            A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

                               21 January 2004

COMPLEX SERIES OF SOLAR EVENTS MAY PRODUCE AURORAL DISPLAYS

     A complex series of solar events on 19 and 20 January has resulted in a
well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). The events
involved filament eruptions as well as a major solar flare (a fairly minimal
major x-ray class M6.1 flare) in sunspot complex 10540 on 20 January.

     Confidence is high that this coronal mass ejection will impact the
Earth. Low and moderately energetic protons at greater than 5 MeV have
already increased in response to the effects of the associated leading shock
front from the CME. Impact is expected to occur during the early portion of
the UTC day of 22 January (evening/night hours over North America).

     A middle latitude aurora watch has been issued for 22 and 23 January. If
the disturbance arrives as predicted, North America should be best positioned
to observe much of the activity. The watch statement has been appended below.

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                   WATCH ISSUED: 09:30 UTC, 21 JANUARY 2004

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 21 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 03:00 UTC ON 22 JAN, +/- SEVERAL HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: LATE 21 - 22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 20, 15 (21 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
   IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO
   NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   IRELAND TO ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN
   POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     A well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection is enroute to
the Earth. Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur during the early
UTC hours of 22 January (our target time is estimated near 03:00 UTC, give or
take several hours). NOTE that this correponds (for North American observers)
to the evening hours of 21 January (Wednesday night). Auroral activity could
intensify to moderately strong levels following the arrival of the
disturbance and may provide sporadic opportunities to observe auroral
activity over fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions. The near-new phase
of the moon will help ensure optimally dark skies for all regions.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
23 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


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