[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate due to M-class (R1; Minor) activity. Region 3234 (N25E41, Ekc/beta-gamma) underwent some growth and had a mixed polarity penumbra in the trailing spot section. The region was the source of the two M-class flares, the largest was a M2.6 at 22/1350 UTC. Region 3229 (N25W12, Esi/beta) underwent decay, in particular in the intermediate and trailing sections. Region 3230 (S22E12, Dso/beta) underwent early growth, followed by decay; and produced a low-level C-class flare. Newly numbered Region 3235 (N19E19, Cso/beta) emerged this period and contributed an M1 flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance of an X-class (R3; Strong) event 23-25 Feb due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3234, 3229 and 3230.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 23-25 Feb, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintains background levels. However, there is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) event due primarily to the slight risk of a solar energetic proton event from mainly Regions 3234 and 3229.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influences. The total IMF strength was elevated, with a maximum value of 11 nT, but trended weaker later in the period. The Bz component underwent southward deviations to -10 nT during the 00-03 synoptic period, then settled to +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speed increased from near 450 km/s to 540 km/s after 22/2300 UTC. Phi underwent brief deviations but was predominantly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to trend towards background, ambient-like conditions 23-24 Feb, however, influences from an additional, negative polarity CH HSS will likely keep the solar wind field mildly disturbed with occasional enhancements. Proximity or weak influences from the negative polarity CH HSS are most likely on 25 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Geomagnetic responses of mainly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active levels, are expected 23-25 Feb due to the varying levels of CH HSS effects.

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